巴菲特:我为什么要早上去上班
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时间:2008-05-05 10:23:42 作者:admin

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为什么巴菲特认为自己的工作和在西斯廷教堂作画相似?

    作者:Nicholas Varchaver

    本月早些时候,沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在沃顿商学院(Wharton School)为学生做了演讲,随后又接受了《财富》的采访,在此期间,他就经济问题、信贷危机以及贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)筹资事件讲述了他的看法。

    在这里,我们会继续分享他与学生谈话的内容,这个超级亿万富翁如何评价管理人员和企业收购,他在这方面有什么样的标准,以及为什么他认为自己的工作和为西斯廷教堂作画相似。

    问:你之前说过在提到购买企业时,一个重要的因素是管理者要诚实、有能力和勤劳。我觉得,如果你认识这个管理者的时间很短,那么是很难做出判断的。你是怎么来进行判断的,通常要花多长时间才能做出评价?

    巴菲特:几乎每次我们买进企业的时候,都会带上管理者,所以在这方面我的确有自己的判断。如果要我从这里选出5个最好的管理者,我可能也不知道该怎么办。我的意思是,你们都有很高的智商,很棒的学术成就。你们在入学的时候都显示了能力和激情,并为此十分努力。所以你们都具备这些有吸引力的才能。

    我能选出5个最好的吗?我认为不能。当我看到某个经理管理一家企业20年,我能做的就是要看看,如果我帮他维持过去的一切条件,他在未来的表现能否和过去一样好。所以在我买进一家企业时,一个最重要的问题就是问自己:“他们是热爱金钱,还是热爱这个企业?”如果他们热爱的是这个企业,我们可以交易;但是如果他们热爱的是金钱,我们就不会交易。

    现在假设他们热爱的是企业,就像我们的管理者一样。他们以10亿美元卖给我这家企业,并迫不及待的要在早上开始工作。

    这种情况下,我是唯一能把事情搞砸的人。我可以让他们得不到这笔交易。但是我问自己,“我为什么要早上去上班?”我已经有了足够的钱,现在甚至又有了社会保险。我的孩子们可能得不到很多保障,但那是他们的问题。于是我就说,“我为什么要早上去上班?”

    这里有两个原因。我喜欢画我自己的画。我来到办公室,坐在椅子上,开始画画。我想象着自己来到了西斯廷教堂。这是我自己的画。如果有人对我说,“多用红色而不是蓝色,画海洋不要画陆地。”我会在五秒钟内递给他一支画笔,还有其他一些东西,然后我对他说,“自己画你自己的画,我只画我想画的。”我开始画自己的画,如果我画得好,我就会得到喝彩。我喜欢这样,我喜欢自己的画被别人欣赏,我喜欢自己能画自己想画的。这对于我来说,比高尔夫成绩降低3杆或者推圆盘游戏打败别人更重要。也就是说,这是我的终极乐趣。 

    如果这让我很兴奋,为什么不会让那些自己创业的人兴奋呢?他们用一生时间来创造这幅精彩的画,而现在,因为某些原因,也许是因为交税,也许是其他原因,总之他们要卖掉这幅画,把它换成钱。

    他们来找我,他们知道在伯克希尔(Berkshire)能保住自己的画笔,他们能继续做自己的画。这时我就要评估他们,判断他们是真的在乎他们的画,还是只在乎钱。一个方法就是看看他们是否拍卖自己的企业。 我们从没在拍卖会上收购任何企业。如果任何人想拍卖自己的家庭,拍卖自己一生的创造,那就都不是我们想要的。

    我对他们说,你们有两个选择。你们用了一生来创建这个企业,或者也许你们的父辈创立了这个企业,你们得以继承,甚至可能是你们的祖父留下来的企业。你们为它放弃过假期,周末也工作。所有这些付出使你们创作了这幅精彩的画。现在你们带它来找我,但是如果你们要拍卖,那就不要找我。

    我接着说那两个选择。他们可以把这幅画卖给我,然后它会被陈列在都市艺术博物馆里。我们会有一个部分专门陈列他们的画。人们会来参观,他们会说,“这个画家真棒。”这样他们就可以继续画画。或者你们可以把这幅画卖给色情商店。他们会进行修改,就像把乳房画得再大一些。然后他们会把它挂在橱窗上。几年以后,一个身穿雨衣的家伙把它买走,贴在自己家的窗户上,这基本上就变成一块肉了。真正在乎的人,我们会把他们的画挂在都市博物馆里。

    三年前的一个星期三,我收到一封传真,是一个我从没见过的家伙发来的,提到一家我从没听说过的公司。这家伙叫彼得•利格尔(Peter Liegl),在印第安那的艾尔克哈特经营一家名为Forest River的公司。他发给我两页资料,并说,“这些好像是你比较感兴趣的东西。”

    那天我给他打了电话,我说,“彼得,把最近几次的审计报告发给我,用联邦快递,我明天下午再给你打电话。”之前从没见过他,也没听说过他的公司(一家娱乐汽车公司)。我周四早上收到报告,下午给他打了电话。我说,“彼得,这就是我要做的,你觉得行就行。”我没见过他,但是从他做事的方式和他的想法我就能做出判断。然后他说,“好,我下周和我妻子和女儿过去,她们也是股东。”

    他们是一天下午过来的。我对他说,“彼得,你想要多少工资。”他的公司去年业绩是17亿美元。我的这种做法,你们在商学院是学不到的。 我不希望任何为我工作的人对待遇不满。这些人不需要我,他们有足够的钱。我将要投资数亿资金。他回答,“我不知道。”我又说,“告诉我吧,因为我想让你满意,你还得经营这家公司。”他想了一会,然后说,“我看了一下代理说明,你的工资是10万美元,我不想比你挣得多。”所以他的工资就定在了10万美元。

    然后我又说,“如果超过一定数额[我根据该数额做出购买公司的决定],你应该得到额外的收入。我希望你在未来收益的提成比率要比现在的水平高。”我们就此又达成了协议。但是他提出的是10万美元,而我提出的要比那个水平高。从那时起,他把那家公司经营得相当棒。我从没去过艾尔克哈特,从没去看过这家公司,我希望现在还在那儿。皮特可能有一个11岁的儿子在那里说,“我们应该给巴菲特多少钱呢?”那家伙做的真不错。

    如果我当时要求彼得建一个新工厂,开发新模式,或者更换经销公司,他可能会直接让我滚蛋。你们知道,他没有理由不让我滚蛋。他不需要那个工作。只要他觉得很有趣,他就会一直经营下去,他会经营很久的。

    并购代理人为我提出各种各样的交易。我就是喜欢断定所有人的预测都不可能实现。他们给我看帐簿,我甚至都不想看。但是他们还是给我看,而且他们永远都做出那样的预测(只见上升,不见下降)。我希望自己能一生都断定这些数字不可能实现,但是我没有机会这样做。如果你有机会缩短投资银行家的帐簿,那将是一个伟大的事业。

    问:你刚才提到在收购子公司的时候,你允许他们再注资,如果他们能够提高最低回报率。我的问题时,基于风险调整,你怎么确定资本的成本?

    巴菲特:我们不考虑资本成本或是风险调整。我的意思是,我们不想冒任何风险,我们也不会冒任何风险。这并不是意味着我们不会做错事,但是我们不会做任何会造成损失的事情。

    你们知道,盖克公司(GEICO)花8亿美元做广告。今年在盖克我可能有2亿美元是花错的。但是我知道这些已经没有办法进一步改善。我们用资本做的就是在适当的时机做最好的选择。我是说,到最后,我们能保留所有的东西。 

    如果每花一美元,收益达不到一倍,我们都不会做。我们总是尽我们所能。如我早些时候所说,我们应该用我们拥有的东西,去创造更好的机会。但是我们不会出售在伯克希尔的业务,这是我对人们的承诺。如果别人把企业卖给我,它会永远留在都市博物馆。我也可能会犯错。

    如果永远都是亏损,我保留出售的权力;如果有劳工问题,我保留出售的权力。这些是每年的年度报告背后的事情。这些原则已经存在20多年了,但是我们相信并遵循这些原则。所以我们不会以那样的方式放弃一家企业。但如果每周有2亿美元流到我这里,我也非常喜欢。而我的工作就是要考虑怎么对这笔钱进行分配。

    小额的资本支出,甚至包括子公司的大额支出,都是由他们自己管理。在这方面,他们不需要我,因为如果有人和我说工厂里或者在乔治亚州发生的事情,我又怎么可能知道呢?我是说,他们总可以想办法让一切看起来很好。如果我说我们要求的内部收益率是15.83,他们的就会是15.84。我从来没见过不能满足最低回报率的项目,你知道的,只要他们想做。我们不会理这些文字游戏,省我自己的时间,也省他们的时间。

    如果是更大型的交易,我个人就要参与其中,这包括买进大小不一的企业等。但是我们总是在寻求最明智的选择。而我们的起点就是我们花的一美元必须至少创造同等的价值。对于适销证券,在某种程度上来讲,我们只会选择我们认为有最好预期的,我们不会选择会有永久亏损风险的证券,在我的投资组合里,没有一只这样的证券。它们可能会贬值50%。

    自从我买进伯克希尔-哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)的股票起,它本身就有3次下跌了50%,在1974年、1987年,在1998年,也可能是2000年,它的股价都遭到腰斩。但是这并不会让我担心。我担心永久性资本损失,我担心是否是正确的投资,我担心管理者是不是满意。其他的事情,顺其自然就好。

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Guest
引用   删除2010-01-06 16:41:26

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Guest
引用   删除2010-01-06 16:39:57

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Guest
引用   删除2010-01-06 16:39:17

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Guest
引用   删除2010-01-06 16:38:19

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Guest
引用   删除2010-01-06 16:36:30

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Guest
引用   删除2010-01-06 16:35:45

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